It's that time again! Time for the Solipsist to issue his wholly uninformed, yet guaranteed-correct--
(DISCLAIMER: Predictions not guaranteed to be correct. END OF DISCLAIMER)
--predictions for the 2021 Academy Awards.
It has been, to put it mildly, a strange year for the Academy Awards. For the first time, the Best Picture winner will go to a made-for-TV film. Because ALL the films were made for TV. Oh, sure, the studios may have made big deal of abiding by the "rules" of making their films eligible for Oscar consideration by releasing them in theaters for at least a limited release, but given Covid-restrictions, these films could only be viewed by three people at a time--and these three people had to be tested for the coronavirus, quarantine for 14 days prior to the screening, sign a waiver absolving the studios of any responsibility for future infection, and wear level-five protection Hazmat suits to the theater. Which, let's face it, seems like a helluva lot to go through to see "Minari." Far better to stream the nominees from the comfort of one's own home, where the screens might be smaller, but the snacks are generally cheaper.
Whether this is the first year of a new normal for prestige film remains to be seen. People do seem somewhat eager to get back into movie theaters. The trades were all giddy over the boffo box-office business done by "Godzilla vs Kong"--not likely to be nominated for any awards (which is a shame, really, because MechaGodzilla gave a thoroughly heartwarming performance #OscarsSoNon-Kaiju)--but was this surprising? Of COURSE it cleaned up at the box office! Newly vaccinated people are so eager to get back into their old entertainment habits, they would have paid money to sit in front of an IMAX screen to watch paint dry! Or to watch "Wonder Woman 1984"! (Not that I recommend the latter.) At the same time, though, for the mid-budget "prestige" films that make up the bulk of the Oscar contenders, there really isn't much to be gained from watching on a big screen. I love Anthony Hopkins, but I'm sure I could get the same emotional impact of "The Father" on a small screen as I could if I experienced it in a format where Hopkins' nostril is the size of my whole body. Indeed, it might be preferable.
But these are considerations for another time. For now, let's get to the picks!
(DISCLAIMER: I have seen only three of the films nominated for Best Picture: "Judas and the Black Messiah," "Mank," and "Trial of the Chicago Seven." Not that this will stop me from pontificating on everything else. END OF DISCLAIMER)
Best Picture: Let's get the big one out of the way first. "Nomadland" is apparently the favorite, having received universal critical acclaim and also winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama. I've also heard a lot about "Minari," and it would be interesting if the Oscar went to a Korean movie for a second year in a row, making Korea the new Tom Hanks. There's always something to be said for betting on the movie with the most nominations, which would be "Mank," which also has the advantage of being a movie about Hollywood, a genre that generally does well at the Oscars, but I kind of feel that the strongest competition might just be "Judas and the Black Messiah," a very timely entry in the age of Black lives Matter. Still, I'm gonna go with the "safe bet" here: Pick: Nomadland
Best Actor: Let's strike Gary Oldman: He's won his Oscar already. Similarly, I think we can strike Anthony Hopkins, who may be one of the greatest actors in film history, but who won't win for a movie ("The Father") that nobody has seen. Furthermore, in an Oscar year that has featured the most diverse set of nominees ever, I don't see the award going to an old, white guy--an old white BRITISH guy, at that. So this leaves Riz Ahmed ("Sound of Metal"), Chadwick Boseman ("Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"--RIP, King T'Challa! Wakanda Forever!), and Steven Yeun ("Minari"). The sentimental pick, of course, is Boseman, whose life and career ended far too early. He did win a Golden Globe for this performance, and his widow gave one of the most wrenching speeches I've ever seen. But posthumous wins are rare--if for no other reason than that it's rare that someone dies between the time their movie opens and the Oscars are distributed. Will Boseman follow in the footsteps of Peter Finch, Heath Ledger, and Meryl Streep? (It's true: Streep died shortly before winning the award for "The Iron Lady." Every performance since then has been computer-generated.) Possibly, but I think I'm going to go in this case with. . . Pick: Riz Ahmed
Best Actress: Frances McDormand ("Nomadland") is probably the front-runner here, but, again, she's already won--twice, in fact. Viola Davis ("Ma Rainey. . . ") is probably her stiffest competition, along with Carey Mulligan ("Promising Young Woman"). Since "Ma Rainey" was somehow snubbed for a Best Picture nomination, I think this will be the consolation prize. Pick: Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya ("Judas and the Black Messiah"). It's the wrong category, though: Kaluuya was the lead in this movie. Indeed, that was probably the biggest flaw of the movie, really more a biopic about Fred Hampton than about Hampton's betrayal by one of his lieutenants (as implied by the title). Not that there's anything wrong with a biopic of Fred Hampton, but, as at least one critic has pointed out, the film does not do a particularly good job of presenting the psychological and ethical dilemmas confronted by the "Judas" of the title. Lakeith Stanfield (also nominated for Best Supporting Actor) is a fine performer, and does a decent job as the tormented Bill O'Neal, but his story is largely overshadowed by that of the charismatic Hampton. As I mentioned, this is one of the few movies I saw, and, really, what I remember from this movie is Daniel Kaluuya,
Best Supporting Actress: A couple of years back, I predicted that Glenn Close was a mortal lock to win her first Academy Award for "The Wife." As I stated then, this would be not so much recognition of her typical brilliance in that little-seen movie, but rather a belated acknowledgment of her status as the second greatest American film actress of the last fifty years (and of course, the greatest living American film actress, #RIPMerylStreep). And so, of course, she went on to lose to Olivia Colman. Well, tonight is the rematch! Close is up for Best Supporting Actress ("Hillbilly Elegy"), squaring off against her nemesis Colman ("The Father"). There is no way in Hell that Colman beats her twice. Glenn Close is about to cap off her brilliant, breathtaking career. Pick: Maria Bakalova ("Borat Subsequent Moviefilm")
Best Director: Conventional wisdom usually gives the edge in this category to whatever film ultimately wins Best Picture. There's a good chance, then, that the award will go to Chloe Zhao ("Nomadland"). The other nominees are Thomas Vinterberg (Who?!?) for "Another Round" (What?!?), Lee Isaac Chung ("Minari"), Emerald Fennell ("Promising Young Woman"), and David Fincher ("Mank"). I'm gonna say that this might be an award where the voters reward a Hollywood lifer. Pick: David Fincher
Those are the biggies. Here, just 'cause, are my other picks, which are mostly pure guesses:
Animated Feature Film: "Soul"
Cinematography: "Mank" (When there's a black and white film up for consideration, pick it.)
Costume Design: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Documentary: "My Octopus Teacher" ('cause I've heard of it)
Documentary Short: "Colette" ('cause it was the first one listed)
Film Editing: "Nomadland"
International Feature: "Another Round" (I mean, its director got nominated!)
Make-up: "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Music (Original Score): "Soul"
Original Song: "Fight for You"
Production Design: "Mank"
Animated Short: "Burrow"
Live Action Short: "Two Distant Strangers" (I have no idea.)
Sound: "Sound of Metal" (It's in the title!)
Visual Effects: "Tenet" (OK, I saw this one, too.)
Adapted Screenplay: "One Night in Miami"
Original Screenplay: "Trial of the Chicago Seven" (Because Sorkin.)
Enjoy the show, everyone!
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