And the Oscar Goes to. . . .Yawn

 The trees are blooming, the weather is warming, and I'm all loge-y from the shift to Daylight Savings Time (FROM Daylight Savings Time? Daylight SavING Time?  Oh, who cares!).  This can only mean one thing: It's time to pick the Oscars!  So without further ado, here are the Solipsist's GUARANTEED* winners!

(*Winners not guaranteed.)

The usual caveats: I have not seen all the nominees, and these picks are based on a combination of (limited) familiarity with the films and cynical guesses about where the Academy will land.  Onward!

Best Picture

Many people think "West Side Story" could make history as the first remake of a Best Picture winner to win Best Picture. It won't make such history.  Not because it won't win--I mean, it won't--but because, even if it does, it won't be the first remake to achieve such a distinction.  That honor belongs to "Schindler's List," which anyone will tell you was a thinly-veiled remake of "The Sound of Music," only with less singing and more whimsical Nazis.

"The Power of the Dog" seems to be the favorite.  I thought the movie was OK--the parts of it that I saw, anyway, in between naps.  You know, much has been written about the impact of streaming on the movie industry: Is a movie a movie if it basically only plays on television?  Maybe, maybe not.  What it IS, though, is an invitation to drift off during the boring bits without feeling the guilt one would feel after spending a small fortune on a movie ticket.  And when a movie is ALL boring bits--Benedict Cumberbatch's naked dance notwithstanding--well. . .

What I'm saying is, "Dog" is a beautiful, heartfelt film that I'm sure anyone who stays awake through it will appreciate.

"Belfast": Haven't seen it.  I like Kenneth Branagh and all, but I don't think it will win. 

"CODA": I can't see this winning.  Well, OK, I can't HEAR it winning.  Sorry.

"Don't Look Up": They say satire is what closes on Saturday night, so this climate change allegory/satire faces long odds.  It's an enjoyable little movie, but it, too, suffers somewhat from its streaming nature.  It comes across as a really well-done and entertaining TV movie, but not a great piece of cinema.

"Drive My Car": Haven't seen it, but everything I've heard about it makes me think this is actually a sort of dark-horse contender.  Not sure if another foreign-language film will win best picture so soon after "Parasite," though.

"Dune" was a very good movie.  HALF a movie.  Maybe it can win half a best picture award.  And maybe in the second half Zendaya will get to talk.

"King Richard": Haven't seen it. I resent any movie that tries to make Richard Williams into a sympathetic figure.  (For the same reason, Will Smith won't win Best Actor.)

"Licorice Pizza": Love me some Paul Thomas Anderson.  "Magnolia" was spectacular (if for no other reason that it introduced scads of people to the music of Aimee Mann).  I have not actually seen "Licorice Pizza" yet, so I can't say whether it stands a chance.  But if it somehow did win, it would make me happy,

"Nightmare Alley": Also haven't seen it.  Also love me some Guillermo Del Toro.  He's already won, though, so . . .probably not.

All things being equal, with no clear and obvious lock, I'm just going to play it safe and go with the favorite. . . 

PICK: Power of tnjxsabcjdbdsvdzf.  Sorry, drifted off again: Power of the Dog

Best Actor

I'm thinking this is basically a two-man race between Benedict Cumberbatch and Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth").  Will the Academy officially "anoint" Cumberbatch one of the greatest actors of his generation (he is) or, alternatively, will they strengthen Denzel's claim to being the greatest actor of all time?  I also enjoyed Andrew Garfield in "Tick, Tick. . .Boom"; I don't think he'll win, but his performance did convince me to forgive him for his awful "Spider-Man."

PICK: Cumberbatch. Either this will be part of a "Dog" sweep, or this will be the "big" award the movie gets. 

Best Actress

Olivia Colman, Penelope Cruz, and Nicole Kidman have all won before, and I don't think any of them are in "showy" enough roles to merit another Oscar this year.  The phrase, "And the Oscar goes to. . .Kristen Stewart" would unseal the gates of Hell and unleash plague, war, and natural disaster upon the earth. . .  Well, OK, MORE plague, war, and natural disaster.  So. . . 

PICK: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye."

Best Supporting Actor

My personal favorite of the nominees is J. K. Simmons, but since he's already won, I think he's a long-shot here--as was the case with the Best Actress nominees, Simmons' role in "Being the Ricardos" isn't really exciting enough to merit a second Oscar. I haven't seen "Belfast" or "Coda," so I'll go with Kodi-Smit McPhee--who was, undeniably, one of the more interesting elements of "Power of the Dog."

PICK: Kodi-Smit McPhee

Best Supporting Actress

I think "West Side Story" will win at least ONE of the biggies.

PICK: Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story."

Best Director

As much as I'd love to see Paul Thomas Anderson or Kenneth Branagh walk away with an Oscar, I'll go with the "safe" choice of picking the director whose movie I think will win Best Picture.

PICK: Jane Campion, "Power of the Dog"

And now, for everything else:

Animated Feature Film: "Encanto."  (Is this even a question?)

Cinematography: "The Tragedy of Macbeth" (The black and white movie always wins.)

Costume Design: "Dune" I actually have opinions about this one.  I'm not an overly technical-minded moviegoer, but while watching "Dune," I really did find myself thinking, "Man, those are some beautiful costumes," particularly the sort of formal attire worn by the Atreides clan.

Documentary Feature: "Summer of Soul" (Go with the one you've heard of.)

Documentary Short Subject: "Three Songs for Benazir" (Go with the one with the funniest name,)

Film Editing: "Dune" I often think that, when a big fantasy/science-fiction movie is in the running, it will take home a lot of the more technical awards, so "Dune" will be my pick for a lot of these.  I also find it hilarious that "Power of the Dog"--an over-long slog--gets nominated for "Best Editing."

International Feature: "Drive My Car" (It's nominated for Best Picture, for Pete's sake!)

Makeup and Hairstyling: "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (You hear "Tammy Faye Bakker," the first thing you think of is hair and make-up.)

Original Score: "Encanto."

Original Song: "Dos Oruguitas" (And we won't talk about why we're not talking about Bruno.)

Production Design: "Dune"

Animated Short Film: "Bestia" ('Cuz I like animals?)

Live-Action Short Film: "The Long Goodby" ('Cuz I closed my eyes and pointed a finger at the Oscar ballot?)

Sound: "Dune"

Visual Effects: "Dune"

Adapted Screenplay: "Power of the Dog"

Original Screenplay: "Don't Look Up" (It'll win SOMETHING.)

Enjoy the show, everyone!

Mets Fans Don’t Do Positive Reinforcement

Faithful readers know that, against all common sense, I am a Mets fan. I know the highs and lows—mostly lows—of following this team, and I accept my long-suffering lot. I expect no sympathy.

This season, though, showed a great deal of promise. Despite an almost farcical string of injuries to key players, and despite the fact that almost none of the key position players were performing at anything even close to their lifetime averages, the Mets spent over three months of the season in first place in their division. One could hope that their injured players would return and their underachieving players would heat up—a regression to the mean seeming reasonable if not likely.

Alas, things have not worked out that way. August has been the cruelest month, seeing the team plummet from four games in front to seven games behind in the standings. Some of this can be chalked up to unfortunate timing: The Mets hit a collective slump just as they began a 13-game stretch against the Dodgers and Giants, the two best teams in baseball, and this corresponded to an amazing hot streak from Atlanta, which saw them surge into the division lead. Post-season dreams are all but dashed at this point.

I’m a Mets fan. I’m used to it. But now let’s talk about Javy Baez. 

Baez is a power-hitting shortstop/second baseman. Up until about a month ago, he played for the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are going nowhere this season, so they engaged in that time-honored baseball tradition, trading away veteran players with expiring contracts, in order to stock up on young prospects. Kris Bryant went to the Giants. Anthony Russo went to the Yankees. Baez went to the Mets. And promptly got hurt and missed several games. Way to fit in with your new teammates, Javy!

The injury is not his fault, of course, and he’s played reasonably well for the Mets when he’s been on the field. And, indeed, despite their fall in the standings, the Mets haven’t really played terribly over the last month: Most of their losses have been close. Indeed, that’s probably the most frustrating aspect of this whole thing to fans. I can accept getting clobbered 10-1. But when you’re repeatedly losing 2-0, 3-2. 1-0–this just gets maddening, especially when it seems like every time the Mets get a runner to second base, the next three batters strike out. Booing will ensue.

Today, the Mets got healthy against a pathetic Washington team. They won 9-4, not least due to Javy Baez, who crushed one of those home runs where the ball might still be traveling around the earth if it hadn’t crashed into the seats. The fans, understandably, enjoyed this. Baez’s reaction?

That’s right. He’s giving a thumbs down.

When asked about this gesture, he explained that it was a reaction to the fans—who were cheering—for not being more supportive during the team’s free fall.

Now, remember: The Mets have dropped 11 games in the standings, not least because their main players haven’t performed anywhere close to their normal levels. This, by the way, includes Baez’s good friend Francisco Lindor, who has had a dreadful, injury-plagued first season with the Mets—who signed him to a $340 million contract before the season began! 

Now, paying athletes huge sums of money doesn’t guarantee that they will perform well. But it damn well guarantees the fan base the right to boo—loudly and lustily—when you underperform.

Javy, let me explain something to you: New York is the best place to be a professional athlete when you win. And even if you don’t win, if you hustle and play your heart out, the fans will love you. If, however, you don’t give it your all, or come across as an entitled little whiner, you will find the city a very inhospitable place. Since you’re a free agent after this season, though, I suspect you will not have to worry about this much longer.

Chutzpah, Thy Name Is Abbott

Covid-19 is devastating Texas. The state is reporting an average of more than 12,000 new cases a day, and intensive care units are basically full.  Covid tents are once again being erected in hospital parking lots to deal with the surge.

. . . If only there were some kind of vaccine,

In fairness, Texas is certainly not the worst state in terms of vaccination rates, with something like 56% of its eligible residents vaccinated--not great, certainly, but not as bad as some other Deep Red states.  I imagine having liberal bastions like Austin helps.  But the sheer size of Texas's population means that huge numbers of Texans remain unvaccinated, despite the near ubiquitous availability of vaccines.

In the meantime, though, Texas governor Greg Abbott remains steadfast in his refusal to do anything constructive in combatting the virus.  Not only has he refused to implement a statewide mask mandate, he has gone a step further, and forbidden local governments from imposing mask mandates of their own.  At the same time, though, Abbott is begging health care workers from other states to come to Texas to help with the Covid surge.

All I can say is, I hope that--Hippocratic Oath, notwithstanding--these out-of-state health care workers tell Abbott to go fuck himself sideways.  If he's not willing to do anything to mitigate the spread of the virus, why should anyone risk their own health and well-being to bail him out?  If I were a health-care worker, I'd offer to come to Texas if and only if statewide mask mandates are put in place, along with any number of other mitigation measures.  I might also ask for a million dollars a week. Why not?

****

In other news, the CEO's of Southwest, American, and Delta Airlines have announced that they will not require their employees to get vaccinated, in contrast to United Airlines, which did impose such a mandate.

Really, Delta? Isn't it bad enough for your corporate image that the plague raging across the country is universally and unrelentingly referred to as the "Delta variant"? You really want to compound that by going on record as being less than fanatical in taking steps to protect your staff and customers?

Waiting

This afternoon, our college's marketing director, who also serves as our public information officer (PIO) sent the management group a message over Microsoft Teams: "So we have fires on both sides of campus right now." Off our eastern perimeter, a smallish fire was burning at a storage space (I swear, California has more storage space per capita than anywhere else on earth) and a larger one had ignited off to our west at the local Chevron refinery.  Not to worry, though: The refinery blaze was apparently a truck fire, not likely to ignite the storage tanks.  As of this writing, the smoke seems to have dissipated, and it looks like the fires might be out.

As of this writing. . . 

That's the thing, though: We're basically in the heart of wildfire season right now.  The Dixie Fire northeast of Sacramento has been burning for about a month and is still only about 20% contained.  It's already become the second largest wildfire in California history, and its effects have been seen and felt as far east as Denver, Salt Lake City. . . and Iowa.. . and even New York.  Interestingly, though, folks in my neck of the woods--not especially close to the fire, but certainly closer than Denver, Salt Lake City, et al.--haven't been particularly affected.  Oh, there've certainly been some hazy days, but for thanks to whatever quirks of the jetstream have been holding sway nearby, we really haven't had much in the way of smoky, oppressive air.  So far, despite constant reminders of a "bad" fire season, we've been relatively unscathed--far less. . . scathed?. . .than we've been in recent years.

I'm thankful for that, of course, but every time I take the slightest bit of comfort, I remember that the other shoe--and there's always another shoe--could drop at any moment.  Past performance is not a predictor of future results.  Lack of fire right now ensures nothing about the absence of fire in a week. . . or a day. . . or an hour.  When all it takes to start an inferno is some careless smoker tossing an insufficiently extinguished cigarette into the wrong patch of overly dry grasses. . . . I sometimes find myself seriously wondering how it's possible that the entire state isn't on fire in perpetuity.

Sure, life is unpredictable.  We all walk around under constant threat from random catastrophes over which we exercise no control--even if most such random catastrophes are relatively unlikely: Terrorist attacks, lightning strikes, getting bonked on the head by a meteorite.  But the world still feels so much more precarious now, as the uncontrollable catastrophes just seem to increase in number, and sometimes it seems like we're all just waiting for the big one to hit.

TRENDS!!!

Back despite lack of popular demand, it's the Thursday Trendwatch!  Let's see what people are looking at on Yahoo! today! 

(Yeah, I know, I tried doing this a few weeks back with Twitter's trending topics, but that was boring: Just a bunch of TV shows that people were talking about.  I'm hoping Yahoo! will provide a more eclectic mix of things to riff on.)

10: Luka Doncic

Why he's trending: NBA fans now Doncic as the 22-year-old wunderkind (or whatver's Slovenian for "wunderkind") of the Dallas Mavericks.  After only a few years in the league, he's blossomed into a perennial MVP candidate, and he's in the news today thanks to his participation in the Olympics as a member of the Slovenian national team. . . that just lost to France. FRANCE!  That's almost as embarrassing as losing to the Knicks!

9: Doris Duke

Why she's trending: After Luka Doncic made his unceremonious exit from the Olympics, the disturbingly tall and long-dead heiress took the silver medal in the women's shot put. . . OK, seriously, though: Doris Duke's killing of a gay man in Newport, Rhode Island. in 1966 was long ruled an accidental homicide.  Recently, though, it's been conclusively established that Duke intentionally murdered her erstwhile friend.  Yet more proof of the deadly effects of tobacco.

8. NFL Tickets

Why they're trending: . . . ? Because, football?

7. Prostate Cancer Treatment

Why it's trending: I can only assume that it has something to do with the demographic profile of users of Yahoo! being middle-aged men with questionable health practices. . . .Considering who's reporting on their current trend list, I can't really take issue with this.

6. Jennifer Aniston

Why she's trending: There seem to be a few things going on with "Morning Show" star and famous haircut, Jennifer Aniston. She apparently has a "TikTok doppelganger" that has gone viral. She announced recently that she has cut people out of her life over their continued propagation of Covid-19 disinformation. But perhaps most importantly, her favorite underwear, the Hanky Panky thong, may soon disappear from the shelves of Nordstrom's.  America mourns with her.

5: The Hoshizaki Ice Machine

Why it's trending: Because when you need ice, you need Hoshizaki!

4. Nina Dobrev

Why she's trending: Because she "shows off toned abs in red bikini."  I mean, I'm all for this kind thing, but I note a clear double-standard.  Nobody ever seems interested when I show off my abs in a red bikini.  And lord knows I show them off often enough!

3. Elizabeth Holmes

Why she's trending: Holmes was an executive with Theranos, a biotech company that claimed revolutionary diagnostic capabilities, like the capacity to diagnose all manner of illnesses from just a single drop of blood.  It was astounding!  It was world-changing! It was bullshit! And now Holmes faces criminal charges for fraud.  When she does go on trial, it has been decided that patients who received "erroneous" test results will be allowed to testify against her.  Too bad for Holmes that Doris Duke isn't around to bump off some of the peskier witnesses.

2. Carli Lloyd

Why she's trending: She, along with teammate Megan Rapinoe, scored two goals in today's Olympic match against Australia to clinch the bronze medal for Team USA.  At least they didn't lose to France!

And the number one trending topic today is.. . . 

1. Tana Mongeau

Why she's trending: She's a YouTuber who apparently needs a belt.

. . .I tell ya, folks.  Trends ain't quite what they used to be.

Coxswain Teasing

Speaking of weird sports: rowing.

I think I’d make a good coxswain. After all, everybody knows that, if there’s one thing I enjoy, it’s screaming at rowers. I’ll often go down to the park in the hopes of finding a kayaker to yell at. And since the extent of the coxswain’s non-yelling-centered physical activity seems to involve sitting down, I think I am in peak physical condition to assume the awesome responsibility of shrieking Team USA to victory!

Let's Talk about Liberos

I know, I know. I promised you a discussion the designated hitter.  But this is important, dammit!

Oddball sports are the lifeblood of the Olympics.  Every four(ish) years, otherwise reasonable people find themselves suddenly espousing passionate opinions about arcane athletic pursuits that nobody watches: Water polo! Taekwondo! Gymnastics!  (Oh, bite me! You know I speak the truth!)

So it is with volleyball.

To be clear: Not women's beach volleyball, which, far from being meaningless, is the epitome of sports and should have its own cable channel devoted to showing it 24-7-365-World Without End, amen!

No, I speak of the more prosaic indoor volleyball, about which I have developed strong opinions over the last 23 minutes! Specifically, about the "libero."

If you've been watching Olympic volleyball (and who hasn't?), you've surely noticed that one player on each team wears a different color shirt than their teammates.

This is not, as one would reasonably assume, a result of a laundry snafu.  Rather, the mismatched player is the "libero," a position invented in 1998 because volleyball wasn't convoluted enough.

Generally, the libero is the team's best defensive player.  Not to be confused with the team's most defensive player.  That would be Sheryl.  You just can't say anything to that girl!

Where was I?  Ah, yes:

The libero plays a very specific role.  They are not allowed to serve.  They are not allowed to spike.  They are mainly assigned to play defense--but the defensive permission does not extend to blocking their opponent's spikes, which they are not allowed to do, but which would seem to be a key defensive function, but what do I know? I'm just the guy who's been watching volleyball for, now, 32 minutes.  Anyway.  

Liberos are allowed to make spectacular dives (which I believe are called "digs") to prevent a spiked ball from hitting the ground (which would be bad).  They are also allowed to be the "second setter"--i.e., the person who volleys the ball after the first setter so that a third person can smack the ball over the net.  The libero, then, plays the role of the middle person in the Human Centipede that is a volleyball team.

Sorry.

Now, I grant you that saving a spiked ball ("digging") is an important skill. From what I've observed, though (46 minutes!), liberos are not very successful at doing this.  This phenomenon becomes more befuddling when you notice that the "spiker" very often smacks the ball right in the libero's direction.  Like, "Here, libero! Dig this!"  Which on the face of it seems like poor strategy if we assume the liberos can do their job.  I mean, if they're ostensibly the best defensive player, wouldn't you want to keep the ball away from them?  You don't see baseball players intentionally hitting the ball in the direction of the gold-glove shortstop, right?

I should really coach volleyball.

I mentioned earlier that the libero wears a different colored jersey.  This is supposedly to make the player easier for the officials to identify, in case they do something useful--uh, I mean, un-libero-like, such as blocking an opponent's shot.

I suspect, though, the opportunity to clothe someone in an alternate color jersey was in fact the main impetus for the position: It was a marketing ploy.  I mean, you have any idea how many volleyball groupies there are?!?

No, seriously, do you?  I'm thinking six?  

However many there are, you don't want them to stop buying Team USA merch! So you have to give them more inventory to choose from!  You only have the standard t-shirt?  Real fans will spend the extra $49.99 for the libero hoodie!