The trees are blooming, the weather is warming, and I'm all loge-y from the shift to Daylight Savings Time (FROM Daylight Savings Time? Daylight SavING Time? Oh, who cares!). This can only mean one thing: It's time to pick the Oscars! So without further ado, here are the Solipsist's GUARANTEED* winners!
(*Winners not guaranteed.)
The usual caveats: I have not seen all the nominees, and these picks are based on a combination of (limited) familiarity with the films and cynical guesses about where the Academy will land. Onward!
Best Picture
Many people think "West Side Story" could make history as the first remake of a Best Picture winner to win Best Picture. It won't make such history. Not because it won't win--I mean, it won't--but because, even if it does, it won't be the first remake to achieve such a distinction. That honor belongs to "Schindler's List," which anyone will tell you was a thinly-veiled remake of "The Sound of Music," only with less singing and more whimsical Nazis.
"The Power of the Dog" seems to be the favorite. I thought the movie was OK--the parts of it that I saw, anyway, in between naps. You know, much has been written about the impact of streaming on the movie industry: Is a movie a movie if it basically only plays on television? Maybe, maybe not. What it IS, though, is an invitation to drift off during the boring bits without feeling the guilt one would feel after spending a small fortune on a movie ticket. And when a movie is ALL boring bits--Benedict Cumberbatch's naked dance notwithstanding--well. . .
What I'm saying is, "Dog" is a beautiful, heartfelt film that I'm sure anyone who stays awake through it will appreciate.
"Belfast": Haven't seen it. I like Kenneth Branagh and all, but I don't think it will win.
"CODA": I can't see this winning. Well, OK, I can't HEAR it winning. Sorry.
"Don't Look Up": They say satire is what closes on Saturday night, so this climate change allegory/satire faces long odds. It's an enjoyable little movie, but it, too, suffers somewhat from its streaming nature. It comes across as a really well-done and entertaining TV movie, but not a great piece of cinema.
"Drive My Car": Haven't seen it, but everything I've heard about it makes me think this is actually a sort of dark-horse contender. Not sure if another foreign-language film will win best picture so soon after "Parasite," though.
"Dune" was a very good movie. HALF a movie. Maybe it can win half a best picture award. And maybe in the second half Zendaya will get to talk.
"King Richard": Haven't seen it. I resent any movie that tries to make Richard Williams into a sympathetic figure. (For the same reason, Will Smith won't win Best Actor.)
"Licorice Pizza": Love me some Paul Thomas Anderson. "Magnolia" was spectacular (if for no other reason that it introduced scads of people to the music of Aimee Mann). I have not actually seen "Licorice Pizza" yet, so I can't say whether it stands a chance. But if it somehow did win, it would make me happy,
"Nightmare Alley": Also haven't seen it. Also love me some Guillermo Del Toro. He's already won, though, so . . .probably not.
All things being equal, with no clear and obvious lock, I'm just going to play it safe and go with the favorite. . .
PICK: Power of tnjxsabcjdbdsvdzf. Sorry, drifted off again: Power of the Dog
Best Actor
I'm thinking this is basically a two-man race between Benedict Cumberbatch and Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth"). Will the Academy officially "anoint" Cumberbatch one of the greatest actors of his generation (he is) or, alternatively, will they strengthen Denzel's claim to being the greatest actor of all time? I also enjoyed Andrew Garfield in "Tick, Tick. . .Boom"; I don't think he'll win, but his performance did convince me to forgive him for his awful "Spider-Man."
PICK: Cumberbatch. Either this will be part of a "Dog" sweep, or this will be the "big" award the movie gets.
Best Actress
Olivia Colman, Penelope Cruz, and Nicole Kidman have all won before, and I don't think any of them are in "showy" enough roles to merit another Oscar this year. The phrase, "And the Oscar goes to. . .Kristen Stewart" would unseal the gates of Hell and unleash plague, war, and natural disaster upon the earth. . . Well, OK, MORE plague, war, and natural disaster. So. . .
PICK: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye."
Best Supporting Actor
My personal favorite of the nominees is J. K. Simmons, but since he's already won, I think he's a long-shot here--as was the case with the Best Actress nominees, Simmons' role in "Being the Ricardos" isn't really exciting enough to merit a second Oscar. I haven't seen "Belfast" or "Coda," so I'll go with Kodi-Smit McPhee--who was, undeniably, one of the more interesting elements of "Power of the Dog."
PICK: Kodi-Smit McPhee
Best Supporting Actress
I think "West Side Story" will win at least ONE of the biggies.
PICK: Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story."
Best Director
As much as I'd love to see Paul Thomas Anderson or Kenneth Branagh walk away with an Oscar, I'll go with the "safe" choice of picking the director whose movie I think will win Best Picture.
PICK: Jane Campion, "Power of the Dog"
And now, for everything else:
Animated Feature Film: "Encanto." (Is this even a question?)
Cinematography: "The Tragedy of Macbeth" (The black and white movie always wins.)
Costume Design: "Dune" I actually have opinions about this one. I'm not an overly technical-minded moviegoer, but while watching "Dune," I really did find myself thinking, "Man, those are some beautiful costumes," particularly the sort of formal attire worn by the Atreides clan.
Documentary Feature: "Summer of Soul" (Go with the one you've heard of.)
Documentary Short Subject: "Three Songs for Benazir" (Go with the one with the funniest name,)
Film Editing: "Dune" I often think that, when a big fantasy/science-fiction movie is in the running, it will take home a lot of the more technical awards, so "Dune" will be my pick for a lot of these. I also find it hilarious that "Power of the Dog"--an over-long slog--gets nominated for "Best Editing."
International Feature: "Drive My Car" (It's nominated for Best Picture, for Pete's sake!)
Makeup and Hairstyling: "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (You hear "Tammy Faye Bakker," the first thing you think of is hair and make-up.)
Original Score: "Encanto."
Original Song: "Dos Oruguitas" (And we won't talk about why we're not talking about Bruno.)
Production Design: "Dune"
Animated Short Film: "Bestia" ('Cuz I like animals?)
Live-Action Short Film: "The Long Goodby" ('Cuz I closed my eyes and pointed a finger at the Oscar ballot?)
Sound: "Dune"
Visual Effects: "Dune"
Adapted Screenplay: "Power of the Dog"
Original Screenplay: "Don't Look Up" (It'll win SOMETHING.)
Enjoy the show, everyone!
